The 9.0 magnitude Tohoku earthquake that struck off the coast of Japan on March 11, 2011, was the fourth largest earthquake in recorded history and the largest ever to hit a densely populated region (Bertero, 2011; Lekkas et al., 2011). The ensuing tsunami inundated an area of about 561 km² (Geospatial Information Authority, 2011), washing away an estimated 24.9 million tonnes of debris, including wood, sediments, plastics, industrial chemicals, and structural components (Oh, 2011). Two weeks following the tsunami, the meltdown of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear reactors released radioactive elements into the atmosphere and coastal waters. Atmospheric deposition was found to be an important source of radioactivity in surface waters and may have contaminated the debris field, although the extent of this contamination remains unknown (Buesseler et al., 2012; Honda et al., 2012).

Here, we follow the debris field along its predicted path from its source in Japanese coastal waters through the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension, the North Pacific Current, and the California Current. From there, it will loop back toward the Hawaiian Islands, ultimately accumulating in the North Pacific Gyre (International Pacific Research Center, 2011b; Figure 1). Relying on precedents from previous natural disasters and ongoing observations, we attempt to predict the impact of this debris field on marine and coastal ecosystems in each of these regions. We predict that the Tohoku debris field will create a rare perturbation for ecosystems interconnected across the North Pacific, exacerbating the accumulating human impacts on the world ocean.

Bagulayan, A., J.N. Bartlett-Roa, A.L. Carter, B.G. Inman, E.M. Keen, E.C. Orenstein, N.V. Patin, K.N.S. Sato, E.C. Sibert, A.E. Simonis, A.M. Van Cise, and P.J.S. Franks. 2012. Journey to the center of the gyre: The fate of the Tohoku Tsunami debris field. Oceanography 25(2):200–207, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2012.55.

Artham, T., and M. Doble. 2009. Fouling and degradation of polycarbonate in seawater: Field and lab studies. Journal of Polymers and the Environment 17:170–180, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10924-009-0135-x.

Baker, J.D., A.L. Harting, T.A. Wurth, and T.C. Johanos. 2011. Dramatic shifts in Hawaiian monk seal distribution predicted from divergent trends. Marine Mammal Science 27:78–93, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1748-7692.2010.00395.x.

Barnes, D.K.A., F. Galgani, R.C. Thompson, and M. Barlaz. 2009. Accumulation and fragmentation of plastic debris in global environments. Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society B 364:1,985–1,998, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2008.0205.

Bernardino, A.F., C.R. Smith, A. Baco, I. Altamira, and P.Y.G. Sumida. 2010. Macrofaunal succession in sediments around kelp and wood falls in the deep NE Pacific and community overlap with other reducing habitats. Deep Sea Research Part I 57:708–723, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr.2010.03.004.

Bertero, A. 2011. The 2011 Tohoku Disaster and the Nuclear Incident at Fukushima: Comparative Review, Historical Analysis and Assessment of the Japanese Nuclear Regime. Advanced International Law Research Seminar, Hastings College of Law, 37 pp, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1878263.

Block, B.A., I.D. Jonsen, S.J. Jorgensen, A.J. Winship, S.A. Shaffer, S.J. Bograd, E.L. Hazen, D.G. Foley. G.A. Breed, A.-L. Harrison, and others. 2011. Tracking apex marine predator movements in a dynamic ocean. Nature 475:86–90, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10082.

Brown, J., and G. Macfadyen. 2007. Ghost fishing in European waters: Impacts and management response. Marine Policy 31:488–507, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2006.10.007.

Buesseler, K.O., S.R. Jayne, N.S. Fisher, I.I. Rypina, H. Baumann, C.F. Breler, E.M. Douglass, J. George, A.M. McDonald, H. Miyamoto, and others. 2012. Fukushima-derived radionuclides in the ocean and biota off Japan. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 109(16):5,984–5,988, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1120794109.

Burger, J., M. Gochfeld, D.S. Kosson, C.W. Powers, S. Jewett, B. Friedlander, H. Chenelot, C.D. Volz, and C. Jeitner. 2006. Radionuclides in marine macroalgae from Amchitka and Kiska Islands in the Aleutians: Establishing a baseline for future biomonitoring. Journal of Environmental Radioactivity 91:27–40, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2006.08.003.

Carr, A. 1987. Impact of nondegradable marine debris on the ecology and survival outlook of sea turtles. Marine Pollution Bulletin 18:352–356, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0025-326X(87)80025-5.

Chiappone, M., H. Dienes, D.W. Swanson, and S.L. Miller. 2005. Impacts of lost fishing gear on coral reef sessile invertebrates in the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary. Biological Conservation 121:221–230, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2004.04.023.

Derraik, J.G.B. 2002. The pollution of the marine environment by plastic debris: A review. Marine Pollution Bulletin 44:842–852, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0025-326X(02)00220-5.

Distel, D.L. 2003. The biology of marine wood boring bivalves and their bacterial endosymbionts. Wood Deterioration and Preservation 845:253–271, https://doi.org/10.1021/bk-2003-0845.ch014.

Doloff, C.A. 1993. Large woody debris, fish habitat, and historic land use. Pp. 130–138 in Biodiversity and Coarse Woody Debris in Southern Forests: Proceedings of the Workshop on Coarse Woody Debris in Southern Forests: Effects on Biodiversity. J.W. McMinn, and D.A. Crossley, eds, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, October 18–20, 1993. Available online at: http://books.google.com/books/about/Biodiversity_and_coarse_woody_debris_in.html?id=9B3980OPKJIC (accessed November 3, 2011).

Donohue, M.J., R. Boland, C. Sramek, and G. Antonelis. 2001. Derelict fishing gear in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands: Diving surveys and debris removal in 1999 confirm threat to coral reef ecosystems. Marine Pollution Bulletin 42:1,301–1,312, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0025-326X(01)00139-4.

Finkbeiner, E.M., B.P Wallace, J.E. Moore, R.L. Lewison, and L.B. Crowder. 2011. Cumulative estimates of sea turtle bycatch and mortality in USA fisheries between 1990 and 2007. Biological Conservation 144:2,719–2,727, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2011.07.033.

Fisher, N.S., C.V. Nolan, and S.W. Fowler. 1991. Scavenging and retention of metals by zooplankton fecal pellets and marine snow. Deep-Sea Research Part A 38:1,261–1,275, https://doi.org/10.1016/0198-0149(91)90026-C.

Fonteneau, A., P. Pallarés, and R. Pianet. 2000. A worldwide review of purse seine fisheries on FADs. Paper presented at Pêche Thonière et Dispositifs de Concentration de Poissons, Caribbean-Martinique. Oct 15–19, 1999, http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00042/15278.

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations: Fisheries and Aquaculture Department. http://www.fao.org/fishery/en (accessed November 29, 2011).

Gadd, G.M. 1999. Fungal production of citric and oxalic acid: Importance in metal speciation, physiology and biogeochemical processes. Pp. 47–92 in Advances in Microbial Physiology, vol. 41. R.K. Poole, ed., Academic Press.

Geospatial Information Authority in Japan. 2011. (国土地理院). “津波による浸水範囲の面積(概略値) について (第5報)” (in Japanese). Available online at: http://www.gsi.go.jp/common/000059939.pdf (accessed February 27, 2012).

Girard, C., S. Benhamou, and L. Dagorn. 2004. FAD: Fish Aggregating Device or Fish Attracting Device? A new analysis of yellowfin tuna movements around floating objects. Animal Behaviour 67:319–326, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.anbehav.2003.07.007.

Gooday, A.J. 2002. Biological responses to seasonally varying fluxes of organic matter to the ocean floor: A review. Journal of Oceanography 58:305–332.

Hardy, J., S. Kiesser, L. Antrim, A. Stubin, R. Kocan, and J. Strand. 1987. The sea-surface microlayer of Puget Sound: Part I. Toxic effects on fish eggs and larvae. Marine Environmental Research 23:227–249, https://doi.org/10.1016/0141-1136(87)90020-1.

Heldal, H.E., I. Stupakoff, and N.S. Fisher. 2001. Bioaccumulation of 137Cs and 57Co by five marine phytoplankton species. Journal of Environmental Radioactivity 57:213–236, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0265-931X(01)00020-0.

Henderson, J.R. 2001. A pre- and post-MARPOL annex V summary of Hawaiian monk seal entanglements and marine debris accumulation in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, 1982–1998. Marine Pollution Bulletin 42:584–589, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0025-326X(00)00204-6.

Honda, M.C., T. Aono, M. Aoyamo, Y. Hamajima, H. Kawakami, M. Kitamura, Y. Masumoto, Y. Miyazama, M. Takigawa, and T. Saino. 2012. Dispersion of artificial caesium-134 and -137 in the western North Pacific one month after the Fukushima accident. Geochemical Journal 46:e1–e9.

Hong, G.-H., T.F. Hamilton, M. Baskaran, and T.C. Kenna. 2011. Applications of anthropogenic radionuclides as tracers to investigate marine environmental processes. Pp 367–394 in Handbook of Environmental Isotope Geochemistry. M. Baskaran, ed., Advances in Isotope Geochemistry, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany.

Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. 2012. Special Report: Fukushima and the Future of Nuclear Power. IEEE Spectrum. Available online at: http://spectrum.ieee.org/static/mapping-fukushimas-impact-on-japan (accessed May 19, 2012).

International Pacific Research Center. 2011a. Press Release: Russian Ship Finds Tsunami Debris Where Scientists Predicted. University of Hawai’i at Manoa, HI. Available online at: http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/news/press_releases/2011/pallada_tsunami_debris.pdf (accessed March 5, 2012).

International Pacific Research Center. 2011b. Press Release: Where Will the Debris from Japan’s Tsunami Drift in the Ocean? University of Hawai’i at Manoa, HI. Available online at: http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/news/press_releases/2011/maximenko_tsunami_debris.pdf (accessed May 19, 2012).

Japan Wood Preserving Association. 2012. Wood Preservation in Japan. Available online at: http://www.mokuzaihozon.org/english/prsvtn.html (accessed February 27, 2012).

Johnson, R. 2011. Japan’s 2011 Earthquake and Tsunami: Food and Agriculture Implications. Congressional Research Service, Report 7-5700, Washington, DC, 15 pp.

Jones, K.C. and P. de Voogt. 1999. Persistent organic pollutants (POPs): State of the science. Environmental Pollution 100:209–221, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0269-7491(99)00098-6.

Kaeriyama, H., T. Watabe, and M. Kusakabe. 2008. 137Cs concentration in zooplankton and its relation to taxonomic composition in the western North Pacific Ocean. Journal of Environmental Radioactivity 99:1,838–1,845, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2008.08.006.

Kiel, S., and J.L. Goedert. 2006. A wood-fall association from late Eocene deep-water sediments of Washington state, USA. Palaios 21:548–556, https://doi.org/10.2110/palo.2005.p05-086r.

Lekkas, E., E. Andreadakis, V. Alexoudi, E. Kapourani, and I. Kostaki. 2011. The Mw=9.0 Tohoku Japan earthquake (March 11, 2011) tsunami impact on structures and infrastructure. National and Kapodistrian University of Athens. Available online at: http://portal.tee.gr/portal/page/portal/teetkm/DRASTHRIOTHTES/EKDHLVSEIS/ PROSEXEIS_EKDHLWSEIS/EARTHQUAKE_JAPAN/Tab1/EPS-2.pdf (accessed October 11, 2011).

Liu, H., K. Suzuki, and H. Saito. 2004. Community structure and dynamics of phytoplankton in the western subarctic Pacific Ocean: A synthesis. Journal of Oceanography 60:119–137. Available online at: http://www.terrapub.co.jp/journals/JO/pdf/6001/60010119.pdf (accessed May 28, 2012).

Lowry, L.F., D.W. Laist, W.G. Gilmartin, and G.A. Antonelis. 2011. Recovery of the Hawaiian Monk Seal (Monachus schauninslandi): A review of conservation efforts, 1972 to 2010, and thoughts for the future. Aquatic Mammals 37:397–419, https://doi.org/10.1578/AM.37.3.2011.397.

Mato, Y., T. Isobe, H. Takada, H. Kanehiro, C. Ohtake, and T. Kaminuma. 2001. Plastic resin pellets as a transport medium for toxic chemicals in the marine environment. Environmental Science and Technology 35:318–324, https://doi.org/10.1021/es0010498.

Maximenko, N., and J. Hafner. 2012. Marine debris from the tsunami of March 11, 2011: One year after the disaster. Presentation at the International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI, March 5, 2012. (See http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/news/marine_and_tsunami_debris/debris_news.php [accessed May 28, 2012])

Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, 2011. The Damages caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake. Available online at: http://www.maff.go.jp/e/quake/press_110824-2.html (accessed November 27, 2011).

Morita, T., Y. Ohtsuka, K. Fujimoto, Y. Minamisako, R. Iida, M. Nakamura, and T. Kayama. 2010. Concentrations of 137Cs, 90Sr, 108mAg, 239+240Pu and atom ratio of 240Pu/239Pu in tanner crabs, Chionoecetes japonicus and Chionoecetes opilio collected around Japan. Marine Pollution Bulletin 60:2,311–2,322, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2010.09.022.

Moulin, B., and H. Piegay. 2004. Characteristics and temporal variability of large woody debris trapped in a reservoir on the River Rhone: Implications for river basin management. River Research and Applications 20:79–97, https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.724.

Murty, T.S., U. Aswathanarayana, and N. Nirupama, eds. 2007. The Indian Ocean Tsunami. Taylor & Francis Group, London, 528 pp.

National Marine Fisheries Service. 2010. Fisheries Economics of the United States, 2009. NMFS-F/SPO-118. The National Marine Fisheries Service, Silver Spring, MD, 172 pp.

National Police Agency of Japan Emergency Disaster Countermeasures Headquarters. 2012. Damage Situation and Police Countermeasures Associated with 2011 Tohoku District. Available online at: http://www.npa.go.jp/archive/keibi/biki/higaijokyo_e.pdf (accessed February 27, 2012).

Oehlmann, J., U. Shulte-Oehlmann, W. Kloas, O. Jagnytsch, I. Lutz. K.O. Kusk, L. Wollenberger, E.M. Santos, G.C. Paull, K.J.W. Van Look, and C.R. Taylor. 2009. A critical analysis of the biological impacts of plasticizers on wildlife. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 364:2,047–2,062, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2008.0242.

Oh, J. 2011. A consideration for the better preparedness against mega-disaster: Lessons from the 2011 Great Eastern Japan Earthquake and tsunami. Pukyong National University. http://www.kf.or.kr/file/kor_1/Panel_1_Jai-Ho_Oh_발표요약문.pdf (accessed October 10, 2011).

Polovina, J., E. Howell, D. Kobayashi, and M. Seki. 2001. The transition zone chlorophyll front, a dynamic global feature defining migration and forage habitat for marine resources. Progress in Oceanography 49:469–483, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0079-6611(01)00036-2.

Polovina, J., F. Chai, E. Howell, D. Kobayashi, L. Shi, and Y. Chao. 2008. Ecosystem dynamics at a productivity gradient: A study of the lower trophic dynamics around the northern atolls in the Hawaiian Archipelago. Progress in Oceanography 77:217–224, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2008.03.011.

Rios, L.M., P.R. Jones, C. Moore, and U.V. Narayan. 2010. Quantitation of persistent organic pollutants adsorbed on plastic debris from the North Pacific Gyre’s “eastern garbage patch.” Journal of Environmental Monitoring 12:2,226–2,236, https://doi.org/10.1039/c0em00239a.

Ruiz, G.M., P.W. Fofonoff, J.T. Carlton, M.J. Wonham, and A.H. Hines. 2000. Invasion of coastal marine communities in North America: Apparent patterns, processes, and biases. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 31:481–531, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.31.1.481.

Saito, H., A. Tsuda, and H. Kasai. 2002. Nutrient and plankton dynamics in the Oyashio region of the western subarctic Pacific Ocean. Deep-Sea Research Part II 49:5,463–5,486, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0967-0645(02)00204-7.

Satheesh, S., and S.G. Wesley. 2009. Impact of December 26, 2004 tsunami on the hydrobiology of Kudankulam coast, Gulf of Mannar, India. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 156:131–139, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-008-0469-1.

Showstack, R. 2011. Oceanographer tracks marine debris from the Japan tsunami and other incidents. Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 92(37), 306, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011EO370002.

Teuten, E.L., J.M. Saquing, D.R.U. Knappe, M.A. Barlaz, S. Jonsson, A. Björn, S.J. Rowland, R.C. Thompson, T.S. Galloway, R. Yamashita, and others. 2009. Transport and release of chemicals from plastics to the environment and to wildlife. Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society B 364:2,027–2,045, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2008.0284.

Thiel, M., and L. Gutow. 2005. The ecology of rafting in the marine environment: Part II. The rafting organisms and community. Pp. 279–418 in Oceanography and Marine Biology: An Annual Review, vol. 43. R.N. Gibson, R.J.A. Atkinson, and J.D.M. Gordon, eds, Taylor & Francis.

Ueno, D., S. Takahashi, H. Tanaka, A.N. Subramanian, G. Fillmann, H. Nakata, P.K.S. Lam, J. Zheng, M. Muchtar, K. Prudente, and others. 2003. Global pollution monitoring of PCBs and organochlorine pesticides using skipjack tuna as a bioindicator. Archives of Environmental Contaminants Toxicology 45:378–389, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00244-002-0131-9.

Venrick, E.L., T.W. Backman, W.C. Bartram, C.J. Platt, M.S. Thornhill, and R.E. Yates. 1973. Man-made objects on the surface of the Central North Pacific Ocean. Nature 241:271, https://doi.org/10.1038/241271a0.

Vives i Batlle, J. 2011. Impact of nuclear accidents on marine biota. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management 7:365–367, https://doi.org/10.1002/ieam.231.

von Westernhagen, H., M. Landolt, R. Kocan, G. Furstenberg, D. Janssen, and K. Kremling. 1987. Toxicity of sea-surface microlayer: Effects on herring and turbot embryos. Marine Environmental Research 23:273–290, https://doi.org/10.1016/0141-1136(87)90022-5.

Watanabe, Y. 2009. Recruitment variability of small pelagic fish populations in the Kuroshio-Oyashio transition region of the Western North Pacific. Journal of Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Science 41:197–204, https://doi.org/10.2960/J.v41.m635.

Williams, S., and J.E. Smith. 2007. A global review of the distribution, taxonomy, and impacts of introduced seaweeds. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 38:327–359, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.38.091206.095543.

Yan, Z., and D. Tang. 2009. Changes in suspended sediments associated with 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. Advances in Space Research 43:89–95, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2008.03.002.

Ye, S., and A.L. Andrady. 1991. Fouling of floating plastic debris under Biscayne Bay exposure conditions. Marine Pollution Bulletin 22(12):608–613, https://doi.org/10.1016/0025-326X(91)90249-R.

Young, L.C., C. Vanderlip, D.C. Duffy, V. Afanasyev, and S.A. Shaffer. 2009. Bringing home the trash: Do colony-based differences in foraging distribution lead to increased plastic ingestion in Laysan Albatrosses? PLoS One 4(10):1–9, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0007623.

Zainuddin, M., H. Kiyofuji, K. Saitoh, and S. Saitoh. 2006. Using multi-sensor satellite remote sensing and catch data to detect ocean hot spots for albacore (Thunnus alalunga) in the northwestern North Pacific. Deep-Sea Research Part II 53:419-431, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2006.01.007.

This is an open access article made available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution, and reproduction in any medium or format as long as users cite the materials appropriately, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate the changes that were made to the original content. Images, animations, videos, or other third-party material used in articles are included in the Creative Commons license unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If the material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission directly from the license holder to reproduce the material.