Sudden tropical cyclone (TC) intensification has been linked with high values of upper ocean heat content contained in mesoscale features, particularly warm ocean eddies, provided that atmospheric conditions are also favorable. Although understanding of air-sea interaction for TCs is evolving, this manuscript summarizes some of the current work being carried out to investigate the role that the upper ocean plays in TC intensification and the use of ocean parameters in forecasting TC intensity.
View Issue TOC
Volume 22, No. 3
Pages 190 - 197
Applications of Satellite-Derived Ocean Measurements to Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting
Goni, G., M. DeMaria, J. Knaff, C. Sampson, I. Ginis, F. Bringas, A. Mavume, C. Lauer, I.-I. Lin, M.M. Ali, P. Sandery, S. Ramos-Buarque, K. Kang, A. Mehra, E. Chassignet, and G. Halliwell. 2009. Applications of satellite-derived ocean measurements to tropical cyclone intensity forecasting. Oceanography 22(3):190–197, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2009.78.
Ali, M.M., P.S.V. Jagadeesh, and S. Jain. 2007. Effects of eddies and dynamic topography on the Bay of Bengal cyclone intensity. Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union 88:93–95.
Brassington, G.B., T. Pugh, C. Spillman, E. Schulz, H. Beggs, A. Schiller, and P.R. Oke. 2007. BLUElink> Development of operational oceanography and servicing in Australia. Journal of Research and Practice in Information Technology 39:151–164.
Chassignet, E.P., H.E. Hurlburt, O.M. Smedstad, G.R. Halliwell, P.J. Hogan, A.J. Wallcraft, R. Baraille, and R. Bleck. 2007. The HYCOM (HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model) data assimilative system. Journal of Marine Systems 65:60–83.
Chassignet, E.P., H.E. Hurlburt, E.J. Metzger, O.M Smedstad, J.A. Cummings, G.R. Halliwell, R. Bleck, R. Baraille, A.J. Wallcraft, C. Lozano, and others. US GODAE: Global ocean prediction with the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Oceanography 22(2):64–75.
Cione, J.J., and E.W. Uhlhorn. 2003. Sea surface temperature variability in hurricanes: Implications with respect to intensity change. Monthly Weather Review 131:1,783–1,796.
Davidson, N.E., and H.C. Weber. 2000. The BMRC high-resolution tropical cyclone prediction system: TC-LAPS. Monthly Weather Review 128:1,245–1,265.
DeMaria, M., M. Mainelli, L.K. Shay, J.A. Knaff, and J. Kaplan. 2005. Further improvements to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS). Weather and Forecasting 20:531–543.
DeMaria, M., and J. Kaplan. 1994. A statistical hurricane prediction scheme (SHIPS) for the Atlantic basin. Weather and Forecasting 9:209–220.
Drévillon, M., R. Bourdallé-Badie, C. Deval, Y. Drillet, J.-M. Lellouche, E. Rémy, B. Tranchant, M. Benkiran, E. Greiner, S. Guinehut, and others. 2008. The GODAE/Mercator Ocean global ocean forecasting system: Results, applications and prospects. Journal of Operational Oceanography 1:51–57.
Goni, G., S. Kamholz, S. Garzoli, and D. Olson. 1996. Dynamics of the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence based on inverted echo sounders and altimetry. Journal of Geophysical Research 101:16,273–16,289.
Goni, G.J. 2008. Tropical cyclone heat potential. In State of the Climate in 2007. D.H. Levinson and J.H. Lawrimore, eds, Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 89(7):S43–S45.
Halliwell, G.R., Jr., L.K. Shay, S.D. Jacob, O.M. Smeadstad, and E.W. Uhlhorn. 2008. Improving ocean model initialization for coupled tropical cyclone forecast models using GODAE nowcasts. Monthly Weather Review 136:2,576–2,591.
Knaff, J.A., C.R. Sampson, and M. DeMaria. 2005. An operational statistical typhoon intensity prediction scheme for the western North Pacific. Weather and Forecasting 20:688–699.
Leipper, D., and D. Volgenau. 1972. Hurricane heat potential in the Gulf of Mexico. Journal of Physical Oceanography 2:218–224.
Lin, I.-I., C.C. Wu, and I.-F. Pun. 2008. Upper ocean thermal structure and the western North Pacific category-5 typhoons: Part I. Ocean features and category-5 typhoons’ intensification. Monthly Weather Review 136:3,288–3,306.
Mainelli, M., M. DeMaria, L.K. Shay, and G. Goni. 2008. Application of oceanic heat content estimation to operational forecasting of recent Atlantic category 5 hurricanes. Weather and Forecasting 23:3–16.
Powell, M.D., S.H. Houston, L.R. Amat, and N. Morisseau-Leroy. 1998. The HRD real-time hurricane wind analysis system. Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics 77/78:53–64.
Ramos-Buarque, S., and V. Landes. 2008. Aptitude du système global de prévision océanique PSY3V2 pour le monitoring des Cyclones tropicaux: Un chemin vers le dévelopement d’indicateurs croisés. Ateliers de Modélisation de l’Atmosphère (AMA), 22-24 janvier, Toulouse, 10 pp.
Rogers, R., S. Aberson, M. Black, P. Black, J. Cione, P. Dodge, J. Dunion, J. Gamache, J. Kaplan, M. Powell, and others. 2006. The Intensity Forecasting Experiment: A NOAA multiyear field program for improving tropical cyclone intensity forecasts. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 87(11):1,523–1,537.
Shay, L.K., G.J. Goni, and P.G. Black. 2000. Effects of a warm oceanic feature on Hurricane Opal. Monthly Weather Review 128:1,366–1,383.
Surgi, N.S., Q. L. Gopalkrishnan, R.E. Tuleya, and W. O’Connor. 2006. The Hurricane WRF (HWRF): Addressing our nation’s next generation hurricane forecast problems. 27th Conference On Hurricanes and Tropical Cyclone Meteorology, CD-ROM, 7A.2.
Valcke, S., A. Caubel, D. Declat, and L. Terray. 2003. OASIS3 Ocean Atmosphere Sea Ice Soil User’s Guide. Technical Report TR/CMGC/03-69, CERFACS (European Centre for Research and Advanced Training in Scientific Computation), Toulouse, France.
Vanroyen, C., C. Agier, and S. Ramos-Buarque. 2008. Investigation on an oceanic index for monitoring tropical cyclones. Poster presented at the GODAE Final Symposium: The Revolution in Global Ocean Forecasting–GODAE: 10 Years of Achievement, November 10–15, 2008, Nice, France.
Yablonsky, R.M., and I. Ginis. 2008. Improving the ocean initialization of coupled hurricane-ocean models using feature-based data assimilation. Monthly Weather Review 136:2,592–2,607.
This is an open access article made available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution, and reproduction in any medium or format as long as users cite the materials appropriately, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate the changes that were made to the original content. Images, animations, videos, or other third-party material used in articles are included in the Creative Commons license unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If the material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission directly from the license holder to reproduce the material.