Oceanography The Official Magazine of
The Oceanography Society
Volume 27 Issue 02

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Volume 27, No. 2
Pages 94 - 102


A Forecasting Procedure for Plate Boundary Earthquakes Based on Sequential Data Assimilation

Takane Hori Mamoru HyodoRyoko NakataShin’ichi Miyazaki Yoshiyuki Kaneda
Article Abstract

A forecasting procedure is proposed for plate boundary earthquakes in subduction zones. It is based on spatio-temporal variation in slip velocity on the plate interface, which causes interplate earthquakes. Model outputs are not only information about the occurrence of great earthquakes (time, place, and magnitude) but also information about the physical state evolution that causes earthquakes. To overcome the difficulty in forecasting earthquake generation resulting from uncertainty both in the physical model and in the observation data, we introduce a type of sequential data assimilation. In this method, we compare observed crustal deformation data to simulations of several great interplate earthquake generation cycles. We are currently constructing a prototype, applying this forecasting procedure to the Nankai Trough, Southwest Japan, where great interplate earthquakes have occurred and are anticipated.


Hori, T., M. Hyodo, R. Nakata, S. Miyazaki, and Y. Kaneda. 2014. A forecasting procedure for plate boundary earthquakes based on sequential data assimilation. Oceanography 27(2):94–102, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2014.44.


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