Oceanography The Official Magazine of
The Oceanography Society
Volume 24 Issue 02

View Issue TOC
Volume 24, No. 2
Pages 130 - 143

OpenAccess

Understanding and Projecting Sea Level Change

By John A. Church , Jonathan M. Gregory , Neil J. White, Skye M. Platten, and Jerry X. Mitrovica 
Jump to
Article Abstract Citation References Copyright & Usage
Article Abstract

There is intense scientific and public interest in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of sea level for the twenty-first century and beyond. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) projections, obtained by applying standard methods to the results of the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Experiment, includes estimates of ocean thermal expansion, the melting of glaciers and ice caps (G&ICs), increased melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and increased precipitation over Greenland and Antarctica, partially offsetting other contributions. The AR4 recognized the potential for a rapid dynamic ice sheet response but robust methods for quantifying it were not available. Illustrative scenarios suggested additional sea level rise on the order of 10 to 20 cm or more, giving a wide range in the global averaged projections of about 20 to 80 cm by 2100. Currently, sea level is rising at a rate near the upper end of these projections. Since publication of the AR4 in 2007, biases in historical ocean temperature observations have been identified and significantly reduced, resulting in improved estimates of ocean thermal expansion. Models that include all climate forcings are in good agreement with these improved observations and indicate the importance of stratospheric aerosol loadings from volcanic eruptions. Estimates of the volumes of G&ICs and their contributions to sea level rise have improved. Results from recent (but possibly incomplete) efforts to develop improved ice sheet models should be available for the 2013 IPCC projections. Improved understanding of sea level rise is paving the way for using observations to constrain projections. Understanding of the regional variations in sea level change as a result of changes in ocean properties, wind-stress patterns, and heat and freshwater inputs into the ocean is improving. Recently, estimates of sea level changes resulting from changes in Earth’s gravitational field and the solid Earth response to changes in surface loading have been included in regional projections. While potentially valuable, semi-empirical models have important limitations, and their projections should be treated with caution.

Citation

Church, J.A., J.M. Gregory, N.J. White, S.M. Platten, and J.X. Mitrovica. 2011. Understanding and projecting sea level change. Oceanography 24(2):130–143, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2011.33.

References
    AchutaRao, K.M., M. Ishii, B.D. Santer, P.J. Gleckler, K.E. Taylor, T.P. Barnett, D.W. Pierce, R.J. Stouffer, and T.M.L. Wigley. 2007. Simulated and observed variability in ocean temperature and heat content. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 204:10,768–10,773. [CrossRef]
  1. Biancamaria, S., A. Cazenave, N.M. Mognard, W. Llovel, and F. Frappart. 2011. Satellite-based high latitude snow volume trend, variability and contribution to sea level over 1989/2006. Global and Planetary Change 75(3–4):99–107. [CrossRef]
  2. Bougamont, M., J.L. Bamber, J.K. Ridley, R.M. Gladstone, W. Greuell, E. Hanna, A.J. Payne, and I. Rutt. 2007. Impact of model physics on estimating the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet. Geophysical Research Letters 34, L17501. [CrossRef]
  3. Böning, C.W., A. Dispert, M. Visbeck, S.R. Rintoul, and F.U. Schwarzkopf. 2008. The response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to recent climate change. Nature Geoscience 1(12):864–869. [CrossRef]
  4. Cai, W., T. Cowan, J.M. Arblaster, and S. Wijffels. 2010. On potential causes for an under-estimated global ocean heat content trend in CMIP3 models. Geophysical Research Letters 37, L17709. [CrossRef]
  5. Cazenave, A., and W. Llovel. 2010. Contemporary sea level rise. Annual Review of Marine Science 2(1):145–173. [CrossRef]
  6. Chao, B.F., Y.H. Wu, and Y.S. Li. 2008. Impact of artificial reservoir water impoundment on global sea level. Science 320(5873):212–214. [CrossRef]
  7. Charbit, S., D. Paillard, and G. Ramstein. 2009. Amount of CO2 emissions irreversibly leading to the total melting of Greenland. Geophysical Research Letters 35, L12503. [CrossRef]
  8. Church, J.A., J.M. Gregory, P. Huybrechts, M. Kuhn, K. Lambeck, M.T. Nhuan, D. Qin, and P.L. Woodworth. 2001. Changes in sea level. Pp. 639–694 in Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. J.T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C.I. Johnson, eds. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
  9. Church, J.A., N.J. White, and J. Arblaster. 2005. Significant decadal-scale impact of volcanic eruptions on sea level and ocean heat content. Nature 438:74–77. [CrossRef]
  10. Church, J.A., and N.J. White. 2011. Sea-level rise from the late 19th to the early 21st century. Surveys in Geophysics 32. [CrossRef]
  11. Cogley, J.G. 2009. Geodetic and direct mass-balance measurements: Comparison and joint analysis. Annals of Glaciology 50:96–100. [CrossRef]
  12. Davis, J.L., and J.X. Mitrovica. 1996. Glacial isostatic adjustment and the anomalous tide gauge record of eastern North America. Nature 379:331–333. [CrossRef]
  13. Domingues, C.M., J.A. Church, N.J. White, P.J. Gleckler, S.E. Wijffels, P.M. Barker, and J.R. Dunn. 2008. Improved estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise. Nature 453(7198):1,090–1,093. [CrossRef]
  14. Fettweis, X., G. Mabille, M. Erpicum, S. Nicolay, and M. den Broeke. 2011. The 1958–2009 Greenland ice sheet surface melt and the mid-tropospheric atmospheric circulation. Climate Dynamics 36(1):139–159. [CrossRef]
  15. Gomez, N., J.X. Mitrovica, P. Huybers, and P.U. Clark. 2010. Sea level as a stabilizing factor for marine-ice-sheet grounding lines. Nature Geoscience 3(12):850–853. [CrossRef]
  16. Gould, J., and The Argo Science Team. 2004. Argo profiling floats bring new era of in situ ocean observations. Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union 85:185, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004EO190002. [CrossRef]
  17. Gouretski, V., and K.P. Koltermann. 2007. How much is the ocean really warming? Geophysical Research Letters 34, L01610, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027834. [CrossRef]
  18. Graversen, R., S. Drijfhout, W. Hazeleger, R. Van de Wal, R. Bintanja, and M. Helsen. 2010. Greenland’s contribution to global sea-level rise by the end of the 21st century. Climate Dynamics. [CrossRef]
  19. Gower, J.F.R. 2010. Comment on “Response of the global ocean to Greenland and Antarctic ice melting” by D. Stammer. Journal of Geophysical Research 115, C10009. [CrossRef]
  20. Gregory, J.M., and P. Huybrechts. 2006. Ice-sheet contributions to future sea-level change. Philosophical Transactions: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 364(1844):1,709–1,731.
  21. Gregory, J.M., H.T. Banks, P.A. Stott, J.A. Lowe, and M.D. Palmer. 2004. Simulated and observed decadal variability in ocean heat content. Geophysical Research Letters 31, L15312. [CrossRef]
  22. Gregory, J.M., J.A. Lowe, and S.F.B. Tett. 2006. Simulated global-mean sea-level changes over the last half-millennium. Journal of Climate 19:4,576–4,591.
  23. Gregory, J.M., and J. Oerlemans. 1998. Simulated future sea-level rise due to glacier melt based on regionally and seasonally resolved temperature changes. Nature 391:474–476. [CrossRef]
  24. Grinsted, A., J.C. Moore, and S. Jevrejeva. 2010. Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD. Climate Dynamics 34(4):461–472. [CrossRef]
  25. Han, W., G.A. Meehl, B. Rajagopalan, J.T. Fasullo, A. Hu, J. Lin, W.G. Large, J. Wang, X.W. Quan, L.L. Trenary, and others. 2010. Patterns of Indian Ocean sea-level change in a warming climate. Nature Geoscience 3(8):546–550. [CrossRef]
  26. Hegerl, G.C., F.W. Zwiers, P. Braconnot, N.P. Gillett, Y. Luo, J.A.M. Orsini, N. Nicholls, J.E. Penner, and P.A. Stott. 2007. Understanding and attributing climate change. Chapter 9 in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H.L. Miller, eds, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, and New York, NY, USA.
  27. Holland, D.M., R.H. Thomas, B. de Young, M.H. Ribergaard, and B. Lyberth. 2008. Acceleration of Jakobshavn Isbrae triggered by warm subsurface ocean waters. Nature Geoscience 1:659–664. [CrossRef]
  28. Ishii, M., and M. Kimoto. 2009. Reevaluation of historical ocean heat content variations with an XBT depth bias correction. Journal of Oceanography 65:287–299. [CrossRef]
  29. Joughin, I., B.E. Smith, and D.M. Holland. 2010. Sensitivity of 21st century sea level to ocean-induced thinning of Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica. Geophysical Research Letters 37, L20502. [CrossRef]
  30. Kaser, G., J.G. Cogley, M.B. Dyurgerov, M.F. Meier, and A. Ohmura. 2006. Mass balance of glaciers and ice caps: Consensus estimates for 1961–2004. Geophysical Research Letters 33, L19501. [CrossRef]
  31. Katsman, C.A., W. Hazelgar, S.S. Drijfhout, G.J. van Oldenborgh, and G. Burgers. 2008. Climate scenarios of sea level rise for the northeast Atlantic Ocean: A study including the effects of ocean dynamics and gravity changes induced by ice melt. Climatic Change. [CrossRef]
  32. Kendall, R.A., J.X. Mitrovica, and G.A. Milne. 2005. On post-glacial sea level. II. Numerical formulation and comparative results on spherically symmetric models. Geophysical Journal International 161(3):679–706. [CrossRef]
  33. Kopp, R., J.X. Mitrovica, S. Griffies, J. Yin, C. Hay, and R. Stouffer. 2010. The impact of Greenland melt on local sea levels: A partially coupled analysis of dynamic and static equilibrium effects in idealized water-hosing experiments. Climatic Change 103(3):619–625. [CrossRef]
  34. Krinner, G., O. Magand, I. Simmonds, C. Genthon, and J. Dufresne. 2007. Simulated Antarctic precipitation and surface mass balance at the end of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. Climate Dynamics 28(2):215–230. [CrossRef]
  35. Landerer, F., J.H. Jungclaus, and J. Marotzke. 2007. Regional dynamic and steric sea level change in response to the IPCC-A1B scenario. Journal of Physical Oceanography 37:296–312. [CrossRef]
  36. Lettenmaier, D.P., and P.C.D. Milly. 2009. Land waters and sea level. Nature Geoscience 2(7):452–454. [CrossRef]
  37. Leclercq, P.W., J. Oerlemans, and J.G. Cogley. In press. Estimating the Glacier Contribution to Sea-Level Rise for the Period 1800–2005. Surveys of Geophysics. [CrossRef]
  38. Levitus, S., J.I. Antonov, T.P. Boyer, R.A. Locarnini, H.E. Garcia, and A.V. Mishonov. 2009. Global ocean heat content 1955–2007 in light of recently revealed instrumentation problems. Geophysical Research Letters 36, L07608. [CrossRef]
  39. Leuliette, E.W., and J.K. Willis. 2011. Balancing the sea level budget. Oceanography 24(2):122–129. [CrossRef]
  40. Llovel, W., M. Becker, A. Cazenave, S. Jevrejeva, R. Alkama, B. Decharme, H. Douville, M. Ablain, and B. Beckley. 2011. Terrestrial waters and sea level variations on interannual time scale. Global and Planetary Change 75(1–2):76–82. [CrossRef]
  41. Lowe, J.A., and J.M. Gregory. 2006. Understanding projections of sea level rise in a Hadley Centre coupled climate model. Journal of Geophysical Research 111, C11014. [CrossRef]
  42. Lyman, J.M., S.A. Good, V.V. Gouretski, M. Ishii, G.C. Johnson, M.D. Palmer, D.M. Smith, and J.K. Willis. 2010. Robust warming of the global upper ocean. Nature 465(7296):334–337. [CrossRef]
  43. Meehl, G.A., T.F. Stocker, W.D. Collins, P. Friedlingstein, A.T. Gaye, J.M. Gregory, A. Kitoh, R. Knutti, J.M. Murphy, A. Noda, and others. 2007. Global climate projections. Chapter 10 in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, M. Marquis, K. Averyt, M.M.B. Tignor, H.L. Miller Jr., and Z. Chen, eds, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA.
  44. Merrifield, M.A. In press. A shift in western tropical Pacific sea-level trends during the 1990s. Journal of Climate.
  45. Milly, P.C.D., A. Cazenave, and M.C. Gennero. 2003. Contribution of climate-driven change in continental water storage to recent sea-level rise. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 100(23):13,158–13,161. [CrossRef]
  46. Milne, G.A., J.L. Davis, J.X. Mitrovica, H.-G. Scherneck, J.M. Johansson, M. Vermeer, and H. Koivula. 2001. Space-geodetic constraints on glacial isostatic adjustment in Fennoscandia. Science 291:2,381–2,385. [CrossRef]
  47. Mitrovica, J.X., N. Gomez, and P.U. Clark. 2009. The sea-level fingerprint of West Antarctic collapse. Science 323:753. [CrossRef]
  48. Mitrovica, J.X., N. Gomez, E. Morrow, C. Hay, K. Latychev, and M.E. Tamisiea. In press. On the robustness of predictions of sea-level fingerprints. Geophysical Journal International.
  49. Mitrovica, J.X., M. Tamisiea, J.L. Davis, and G.A. Milne. 2001. Recent mass balance of polar ice sheets inferred from patterns of global sea-level change. Nature 409:1,026–1,029. [CrossRef]
  50. Ngo-Duc, T., K. Laval, J. Plocher, A. Lombard, and A. Cazenave. 2005. Effects of land water storage on global mean sea level over the past half century. Geophysical Research Letters 32(9):9,704–9,707. [CrossRef]
  51. Nicholls, R.J. 2011. Planning for the impacts of sea level rise. Oceanography 24(2):144–157. [CrossRef]
  52. Nick, F.M., A. Vieli, I.M. Howat, and I. Joughin. 2009. Large-scale changes in Greenland outlet glacier dynamics triggered at the terminus. Nature Geoscience 2:110–114. [CrossRef]
  53. Palmer, M.D., K. Haines, S.F.B. Tett, and T.J. Ansell. 2007. Isolating the signal of ocean global warming. Geophysical Research Letters 34, L23610. [CrossRef]
  54. Pardaens, A., J.M. Gregory, and J. Lowe. 2011. A model study of factors influencing projected changes in regional sea level over the twenty-first century. Climate Dynamics 36(9):2,015–2,033. [CrossRef]
  55. Peltier, W.R. 2004. Global glacial isostasy and the surface of the Ice-Age Earth: The ICE-5G(VM2) model and GRACE. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Science 32:111–149. [CrossRef]
  56. Pfeffer, W.T., J.T. Harper, and S. O’Neel. 2008. Kinematic constraints on glacier contributions to 21st-century sea-level rise. Science 321:1,340–1,343. [CrossRef]
  57. Purkey, S.G., and G.C. Johnson. 2010. Warming of global abyssal and deep Southern Ocean waters between the 1990s and 2000s: Contributions to global heat and sea level rise budgets. Journal of Climate 23:6,336–6,351.
  58. Radić, V., and R. Hock. 2010. Regional and global volumes of glaciers derived from statistical upscaling of glacier inventory data. Journal of Geophysical Research 115, F01010. [CrossRef]
  59. Radić, V., and R. Hock. 2011. Regionally differentiated contribution of mountain glaciers and ice caps to future sea-level rise. Nature Geoscience 4(2):91–94. [CrossRef]
  60. Rahmstorf, S. 2007. A semi-empirical approach to projecting future sea-level rise. Science 315:368–370. [CrossRef]
  61. Rahmstorf, S., A. Cazenave, J.A. Church, J.E. Hansen, R.F. Keeling, D.E. Parker, and R.C.J. Somerville. 2007. Recent climate observations compared to projections. Science 316(5825):709. [CrossRef]
  62. Ridley, J., J.M. Gregory, P. Huybrechts, and J. Lowe. 2010. Thresholds for irreversible decline of the Greenland ice sheet. Climate Dynamics 35(6):1,065–1,073. [CrossRef]
  63. Rignot, E., G. Casassa, P. Gogineni, W. Krabill, A. Rivera, and R. Thomas. 2004. Accelerated ice discharge from the Antarctic Peninsula following the collapse of Larsen B ice shelf. Geophysical Research Letters 31, L18401. [CrossRef]
  64. Rignot, E., I. Velicogna, M.R. van den Broeke, A. Monaghan, and J. Lenaerts. 2011. Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise. Geophysical Research Letters 38, L05503. [CrossRef]
  65. Scambos, T.A., J.A. Bohlander, C.A. Shuman, and P. Skvarca. 2004. Glacier acceleration and thinning after ice shelf collapse in the Larsen B embayment, Antarctica. Geophysical Research Letters 31, L18402. [CrossRef]
  66. Schwarzkopf, F.U., and C.W. Böning. In press. Contribution of Pacific wind stress to multi-decadal variations in upper-ocean heat content and sea level in the tropical south Indian Ocean. Geophysical Research Letters. [CrossRef]
  67. Slangen, A., C. Katsman, R. Van de Wal, L. Vermeersen, and R. Riva. 2011. Towards regional projections of twenty-first century sea-level change based on IPCC SRES scenarios. Climate Dynamics. [CrossRef]
  68. Solomon, S., G.-K. Plattner, R. Knutti, and P. Friedlingstein. 2009. Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 106(6):1,704–1,709. [CrossRef]
  69. Stammer, D. 2008. Response of the global ocean to Greenland and Antarctic ice melting. Journal of Geophysical Research 113, C06022. [CrossRef]
  70. Suzuki, T., and M. Ishii. 2011. Regional distribution of sea level changes resulting from enhanced greenhouse warming in the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 3.2. Geophysical Research Letters 38, L02601. [CrossRef]
  71. Tamisiea, M.E., and J.X. Mitrovica. 2011. The moving boundaries of sea level change: Understanding the origins of geographic variability. Oceanography 24(2):24–39, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2011.25. [CrossRef]
  72. Tapley, B.D., S. Bettadpur, M. Watkins, and C. Reigber. 2004. The gravity recovery and climate experiment: Mission overview and early results. Geophysical Research Letters 31, L09607. [CrossRef]
  73. Timmermann, A., S. McGregor, and F.-F. Jin. 2010. Wind effects on past and future regional sea level trends in the southern Indo-Pacific. Journal of Climate 23(16):4,429–4,437. [CrossRef]
  74. Van de Wal, R.S.W., and M. Wild. 2001. Modelling the response of glaciers to climate change by applying volume-area scaling in combination with a high resolution GCM. Climate Dynamics 18(3):359–366. [CrossRef]
  75. Vermeer, M., and S. Rahmstorf. 2009. Global sea level linked to global temperature. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 106(51):21,527–21,532. [CrossRef]
  76. von Storch, H., E. Zorita, and J.F. Gonzáles-Rouco. 2008. Relationship between global mean sea-level and global mean temperature and heat-flux in a climate simulation of the past millennium. Ocean Dynamics 58:227–236. [CrossRef]
  77. Wada, Y., L.P.H. van Beek, C.M. van Kempen, J.W.T.M. Reckman, S. Vasak, and M.F.P. Bierkens. 2010. Global depletion of groundwater resources. Geophysical Research Letters 37, L20402. [CrossRef]
  78. Wigley, T.M.L., and S.C.B. Raper. 2001. Interpretation of high projections for global-mean warming. Science 293:451–454. [CrossRef]
  79. Wijffels, S.E., J. Willis, C.M. Domingues, P. Barker, N.J. White, A. Gronell, K. Ridgway, and J.A. Church. 2008. Changing expendable bathythermograph fall rates and their impact on estimates of thermosteric sea level rise. Journal of Climate 21(21):5,657–5,672. [CrossRef]
  80. Yin, J.-J., S.M. Griffies, and R.J. Stouffer. 2010. Spatial variability of sea level rise in twenty-first century projections. Journal of Climate 23(17):4,585–4,607. [CrossRef]
  81. Zuo, Z., and J. Oerlemans. 1997. Contribution of glacier melt to sea-level rise since AD 1865: A regionally differentiated calculation. Climate Dynamics 13:835–845. [CrossRef]
Copyright & Usage

This is an open access article made available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution, and reproduction in any medium or format as long as users cite the materials appropriately, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate the changes that were made to the original content. Images, animations, videos, or other third-party material used in articles are included in the Creative Commons license unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If the material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission directly from the license holder to reproduce the material.