Oceanography The Official Magazine of
The Oceanography Society
Volume 19 Issue 01

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Volume 19, No. 1
Pages 90 - 103

Quantifying Uncertainties in Ocean Predictions

Pierre F.J. Lermusiaux Ching-Sang ChiuGlen GawarkiewiczPhil AbbotAllan R. RobinsonRobert N. MillerPatrick J. HaleyWayne G. LeslieSharanya J. Majumdar Alex PangFrancois Lekien
First Paragraph

A multitude of physical and biological processes occur in the ocean over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Many of these processes are nonlinear and highly variable, and involve interactions across several scales and oceanic disciplines. For example, sound propagation is influenced by physical and biological properties of the water column and by the seabed. From observations and conservation laws, ocean scientists formulate models that aim to explain and predict dynamics of the sea. This formulation is intricate because it is challenging to observe the ocean on a sustained basis and to transform basic laws into generic but usable models. There are imperfections in both data and model estimates. It is important to quantify such uncertainties to understand limitations and identify the research needed to increase accuracies, which will lead to fundamental progress.


Lermusiaux, P.F.J., C-S. Chiu, G.G. Gawarkiewicz, P. Abbot, A.R. Robinson, R.N. Miller, P.J. Haley, W.G. Leslie, S.J. Majumdar, A. Pang, and F. Lekien. 2006. Quantifying uncertainties in ocean predictions. Oceanography 19(1):90–103, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2006.93.