Oceanography The Official Magazine of
The Oceanography Society
Volume 27 Issue 04

View Issue TOC
Volume 27, No. 4
Pages 160 - 167


ICES and PICES Strategies for Coordinating Research on the Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Ecosystems

Suam Kim Anne B. HollowedManuel Barange
Article Abstract

The social, economic, and ecological consequences of projected climate change on fish and fisheries are issues of global concern. In 2012, the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) and the North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES) established a Strategic Initiative on Climate Change Effects on Marine Ecosystems (SICCME) to synthesize and to promote innovative, credible, and objective science-based advice on the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems in the Northern Hemisphere. SICCME takes advantage of the unique and complementary strengths of the two organizations to develop a research initiative that focuses on their shared interests. A phased implementation will ensure that SICCME will be responsive to a rapidly evolving research area while delivering ongoing syntheses of existing knowledge, thereby advancing new science and methodologies and communicating new insights at each phase.


Kim, S., A.B. Hollowed, M. Barange, and B.R. MacKenzie. 2014. ICES and PICES strategies for coordinating research on the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems. Oceanography 27(4):160–167, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2014.94.


Alheit, J., and A. Bakun. 2010. Population synchronies within and between ocean basins: Apparent teleconnections and implications as to physical–biological linkage mechanisms. Journal of Marine Systems 79:267–285, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.11.029.

Arrigo, K.R., G. van Dijken, and S. Pabi. 2008. Impact of a shrinking Arctic ice cover on marine primary production. Geophysical Research Letters 35, L19603, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035028.

Bakun, A. 2010. Linking climate to population variability in marine ecosystems characterized by non-simple dynamics: Conceptual templates and schematic constructs. Journal of Marine Systems 79:361–373, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.12.008.

Barange, M., I. Allen, E. Allison, M.-C. Badjeck, J. Blanchard, B. Drakeford, N.K. Dulvy, J. Harle, R. Holmes, J. Holt, and others. 2011. Predicting the impacts and socio-economic consequences of climate change on global marine ecosystems and fisheries: The QUEST_Fish framework. Pp. 31–59 in World Fisheries: A Social-Ecological Analysis. R.E. Ommer, R.I. Perry, K.I. Cochrane, and P. Cury, eds, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford.

Barange, M., J.G. Field, and W. Steffen. 2010. Introduction: Oceans in the earth system. Pp. 1–7 in Marine Ecosystems and Global Change. M. Barange, J.G. Field, R.P. Harris, E.E. Hofmann, R.I. Perry, and F.E. Werner, eds, Oxford University Press.

Barange, M., G. Merino, J.L. Blanchard, J. Scholtens, J. Harle, E.H. Allison, J.I. Allen, J. Holt, and S. Jennings. 2014. Impacts of climate change on marine ecosystem production in societies dependent on fisheries. Nature Climate Change 4:211–216, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2119.

Beamish, R.J. 2008. Impacts of Climate and Climate Change on the Key Species in the Fisheries in the North Pacific. PICES Scientific Report 35, 217 pp., https://www.pices.int/publications/scientific_reports/Report35/Rep_35_default.aspx.

Blanchard, J.L., S. Jennings, R. Holmes, J. Harle, G. Merino, J.I. Allen, J. Holt, N.K. Dulvy, and M. Barange. 2012. Potential consequences of climate change for primary production and fish production in large marine ecosystems. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society London B 367:2,979–2,989, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2012.0231.

Brander, K., A. Neuheimer, K.H. Andersen, and M. Hartvig. 2013. Overconfidence in model projections. ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil 70:1,065–1,068, https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fst055.

Chavez, F.P., J. Ryan, S.E. Lluch-Cota, and C.M. Niquen. 2003. From anchovies to sardines and back: Multidecadal change in the Pacific Ocean. Science 299:217–221, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1075880.

Cheung, W.W.L., V.W.Y. Lam, J.L. Sarmiento, K. Kearney, R. Watson, and D. Pauly. 2009. Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios. Fish and Fisheries 10:235–251, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00315.x.

Di Lorenzo, E., K.M. Cobb, J.C. Furtado, N. Schneider, B.T. Anderson, A. Bracco, M.A. Alexander, and D.J. Vimont. 2010. Central Pacific El Niño and decadal climate change in the North Pacific Ocean. Nature Geoscience 3:762–765, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo984.

Di Lorenzo, E., N. Schneider, K.M. Cobb, P.J.S. Franks, K. Chhak, A.J. Miller, J.C. McWilliams, S.J. Bograd, H. Arango, E. Curchister, and others. 2008. North Pacific Gyre Oscillation links ocean climate and ecosystem change. Geophysical Research Letters 35, L08607, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032838.

Drinkwater, K.F., G. Beaugrand, M. Keriyama, S. Kim, G. Ottersen, R.I. Perry, H.O. Pörtner, J.J. Polovina, and A. Takasuka. 2010. On the processes linking climate to ecosystem change. Journal of Marine Systems 79:374–388, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.12.014.

Ebbesmeyer, C.C., D.R. Cayan, D.R. McLain, F.H. Nichols, D.H. Peterson, and K.T. Redmond. 1991. 1976 Step in the pacific climate: Forty environmental changes between 1968–1975 and 1977–1984. Pp. 115–126 in Proceedings of the Seventh Annual Pacific Climate (PACLIM) Workshop, April 1990. J.L Betancourt and V.L. Tharp, eds, California Department of Water Resources. Interagency Ecological Studies Program Technical Report 26, http://www.water.ca.gov/iep/docs/tech_rpts/TR26.Proceedings_of_the_Seventh.pdf.

Engelhard, G.H., D.A. Righton, and J.K. Pinnegar. 2014. Climate change and fishing: A century of shifting distribution in North Sea cod. Global Change Biology 20:2,473–2,483, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12513.

Foreman, M.G., and Y. Yamanaka. 2011. Report of Working Group 20 on Evaluation of Climate Change Projections. PICES Scientific Report 40, 165 pp., https://www.pices.int/publications/scientific_reports/Report40/Rep40.aspx.

Francis, R.C., and S.R. Hare. 1994. Decadal-scale regime shifts in the large marine ecosystems of the north-east Pacific: A case for historical science. Fisheries Oceanography 3:279–291, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2419.1994.tb00105.x.

Francis, R.C., S.R. Hare, A.B. Hollowed, and W.S. Wooster. 1998. Effects of interdecadal climate variability on the oceanic ecosystems of the NE Pacific. Fisheries Oceanography 7:1–21, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2419.1998.00052.x.

Greene, C.H., and A.J. Pershing. 2007. Climate drives sea change. Science 315:1,084–1,085, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1136495.

Hjort, J. 1914. Fluctuation in the great fisheries of northern Europe reviewed in the light of biological research. Rapports et Procès-verbaux des Réunions, Conseil International pour l’Exploration de la Mer 20:1–228.

Hollowed, A.B., M. Barange, R.J. Beamish, K. Brander, K. Cochrane, K. Drinkwater, M.G.G. Foreman, J.A. Hare, J. Holt, S.-i. Ito, S. Kim, and others. 2013. Projected impacts of climate change on marine fish and fisheries. ICES Journal of Marine Science 70:1,023–1,037, https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fst081.

Hollowed, A.B., M. Barange, S.I. Ito, S. Kim, H. Loeng, and M.A. Peck. 2011. Effects of climate change on fish and fisheries: Forecasting impacts, assessing ecosystem responses, and evaluating management strategies. Preface. ICES Journal of Marine Science 68(6):984–985, https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsr085.

Hoegh-Guldberg, O., R. Cai, E. Poloczanska, P.G. Brewer, S. Sundby, K. Hilmi, V.J. Fabry, and S. Jung. 2014. The ocean. Pp. 1,655–1,731 in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. V.R. Barros, C.B. Field, D.J. Dokken, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White, eds, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

IGBP (International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme). 1999. Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics (GLOBEC) Implementation Plan. IGBP Report 47, The International Geosphere Biosphere Programme, Stockholm, Sweden, 207 pp.

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2007. Climate Change, 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contributions of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, H.L. Miller, eds, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.

IPCC. 2013. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, and P.M. Midgley, eds, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 1,535 pp.

Jones, M.C., S.R. Dye, J.K. Pinnegar, R. Warren, and W.W.L. Cheung. 2014. Using scenarios to project the changing profitability of fisheries under climate change. Fish and Fisheries, https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12081.

Kendall, A.W. Jr., J.D. Schumacher, and S. Kim. 1996. Walleye pollock recruitment in Shelikof Strait: Applied fisheries oceanography. Fisheries Oceanography 5(suppl. 1):4–18, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2419.1996.tb00079.x.

Kim, S. 2010. Fisheries development in northeastern Asia in conjunction with changes in climate and social systems. Marine Policy 34:803–809, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2010.01.028.

Kotwicki, S., and R.R. Lauth. 2013. Detecting temporal trends and environmentally-driven changes in the spatial distribution of bottom fishes and crabs on the eastern Bering Sea shelf. Deep-Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography 94:231–243.

Larsen, J.N., O.A. Anisimov, A. Constable, A.B. Hollowed, N. Maynard, P. Prestrud, T.D. Prowse, and J.M.R. Stone. 2014. Polar regions. Pp. 1,567–1,612 in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. V.R. Barros, C.B. Field, D.J. Dokken, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White, eds, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA.

Link, J.S., T.F. Ihde, C.J. Harvey, S.K. Gaichas, J.C. Field, J.K.T. Brodziak, H.M. Townsend, and R.M. Peterman. 2012. Dealing with uncertainty in ecosystem models: The paradox of use for living marine resource management. Progress in Oceanography 102:102–114, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2012.03.008.

Lynch, P.D., J.A. Nye, J.A. Hare, C.A. Stock, M.A. Alexander, J.D. Scott, K.L. Curti, and K. Drew. 2014. Projected ocean warming creates a conservation challenge for river herring populations. ICES Journal of Marine Science, https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsu134.

Mantua, N.J., S.R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J.M. Wallace, and R.C. Francis. 1997. A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78:1,069–1,079, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2.0.CO;2.

Merino, G., M. Barange, J.L. Blanchard, J. Harle, R. Holmes, I. Allen, E. Allison, M.-C. Badjeck, N.K. Dulvy, J. Holt, and others. 2012. Can marine fisheries and aquaculture meet fish demand from a growing human population in a changing climate? Global Environmental Change 22:795–806, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.03.003.

Mueter, F.J., N.A. Bond, J.N. Ianelli, and A.B. Hollowed. 2011. Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change. ICES Journal of Marine Science 68(6):1,284–1,296, https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsr022.

Nye, J.A., J.S. Link, J.A. Hare, and W. Overholtz. 2009. Changing spatial distribution of fish stocks in relation to climate and population size on the Northeast United States continental shelf. Marine Ecology Progress Series 393:111–129, https://doi.org/10.3354/meps08220.

Ottersen, G., S. Kim, G. Huse, J.J. Polovina, and N.C. Stenseth. 2010. Major pathways by which climate may force marine fish populations. Journal of Marine Systems 79:343–360, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.12.013.

Overland, J., S. Rodionov, S. Minobe, and N. Bond. 2008. North Pacific regime shifts: Definitions, issues and recent transitions. Progress in Oceanography 77:92–102, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2008.03.016.

Pinsky, M.L., B. Worm, M.J. Fogarty, J.L. Sarmiento, and S.A. Levin. 2013. Marine taxa track local climate velocities. Science 341:1,239–1,242, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1239352.

Plagányi, É.E., J.D. Bell, R.H. Bustamante, J.M. Dambacher, D.M. Dennis, C.M. Dichmont, L.X.C. Dutra, E.A. Fulton, A.J. Hobday, E.I. van Putten, and others. 2011. Modelling climate-change effects on Australian and Pacific aquatic ecosystems: A review of analytical tools and management implications. Marine and Freshwater Research 62:1,132–1,147, https://doi.org/10.1071/Mf10279.

Planque, B., E. Bellier, and C. Loots. 2011. Uncertainties in projecting spatial distributions of marine populations. ICES Journal of Marine Science 68:1,045–1,050, https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsr007.

Poloczanska, E., C.J. Brown, W.J. Sydeman, W. Kiessling, D.S. Schoeman, P.J. Moore, K. Brander, J.F. Bruno, L.B. Buckley, M.T. Burrows, and others. 2013. Global imprint of climate change on marine life. Nature Climate Change 3:919–925, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1958.

Pörtner, H.-O., D. Karl, P.W. Boyd, W. Cheung, S.E. Lluch-Cota, Y. Nojiri, D. Schmidt, and P. Zavialov. 2014. Oceans Systems. Pp.411–484 In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. V.R. Barros, C.B. Field, D.J. Dokken, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White, eds, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA.

Reid, P.C., and L. Valdés. 2011. ICES status report on climate change in the North Atlantic. International Council for the Exploration of the Sea, Copenhagen, Denmark.

Richardson, A.J., and E.S. Poloczanska. 2008. Under-resourced, under threat. Science 320:1,294–1,295, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1156129.

Ruckelshaus, M., S.C. Doney, H.M. Galindo, J.P. Barry, F. Chan, J.E. Duffy, C.A. English, S.D. Gaines, J.M. Grebmeier, A.B. Hollowed, and others. 2013. Securing ocean benefits for society in the face of climate change. Marine Policy 40:154–159, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2013.01.009.

Seo, H., S. Kim, K. Seong, and S. Kang. 2006. Variability in scale growth rates of chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) in relation to climate changes in the late 1980s. Progress in Oceanography 68:205–216, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2006.02.003.

Stachura, M.M., T.E. Essington, N.J. Mantua, A.B. Hollowed, M.A. Haltuch, P.D. Spencer, T.A. Branch, and M.J. Doyle. 2014. Linking Northeast Pacific recruitment synchrony to environmental variability. Fisheries Oceanography 23:389–408, https://doi.org/10.1111/fog.12066.

Stock, C.A., M.A. Alexander, N.A. Bond, K.M. Brander, W.W.L. Cheung, E.N. Curchitser, T.L. Delworth, J.P. Dunne, S.M. Griffies, M.A. Haltuch, and others. 2011. On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on living marine resources. Progress in Oceanography 88:1–27, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2010.09.001.

Valdés, L., W. Peterson, J. Church, K. Brander, and M. Marcos. 2009. Our changing oceans: Conclusions of the first International Symposium on the Effects of climate change on the world’s oceans. ICES Journal of Marine Science 66:1,435–1,438, https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsp134.

Wooster, W.S. 1961. Fisheries oceanography. California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations Reports 8:73–74.

Wooster, W.W., and C.I. Zhang. 2004. Regime shifts in the North Pacific: Early indications of the 1976–1977 event. Progress in Oceanography 60:183–200, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2004.02.005.

Copyright & Usage

This is an open access article made available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution, and reproduction in any medium or format as long as users cite the materials appropriately, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate the changes that were made to the original content. Images, animations, videos, or other third-party material used in articles are included in the Creative Commons license unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If the material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission directly from the license holder to reproduce the material.